Thoughts During the Bye

Like everyone else, I was absolutely stunned by the 38-13 destruction of the mighty New England Patriots. The Dolphins came out fired up and completely dominated both sides of the ball. Sure, Tom Brady was out, but the NFL MVP doesn't play defense.

I absolutely loved the Wildcat offense. Our Canes tried it against the Aggies last season and it worked well despite not being a frequently used part of our offense. It was pretty surprising to see that sort of formation work so well against such a well-taught defense at the professional level.

I wouldn't take too much from the game, as now it is unlikely that we'll be able to use that formation to that extent, at least successfully, for the rest of the season. I also think the Patriots just got caught in a snowball effect. We aren't 24 points better than anyone, much less the Patriots. Still, it was extremely exciting to see some production out of the offense and some big plays out of Joey Porter and the defense.

Chad Pennington proved that he deserves to stay the starter with a sparkling 17/20 performance. Henne can learn a lot from the veteran. Pennington can keep us competitive in most games. Expect to win 5 or 6 games at most, however. This team is still too young and has too many questions at too many positions to make a run at the postseason, even in the weakened status of the AFC East.

My favorite part of the victory was Ronnie Brown's return to his high form. Last season, Brown was a fantasy superstar, leading the NFL in total yards before getting hurt. He has looked like anything but a guy coming back from a career-threatening ACL injury. Besides his dedication and hard work, I credit the fact his injury came while trying to chase someone down, not getting tackled. It had to help.

Ricky also looked great, coming just 2 yards short of 100. I just hope the front office isn't holding his debt to them against him. I would think he deserves some sort of lenience, and if he continues to do his job and produce, that they would just waive the debt. It never made much sense that he owes the Dolphins 8 million that was paid to him by the Saints anyway.

So Far So Good For Dolphins Draft

It's EXTREMELY early to bring this up, but considering the colossal failures of our recent drafts, I figured why not.

The big optimism with this new regime is the supposed expertise of the guys making personnel decisions. I have to say, so far they have been right on target with many of their decisions. I could go into their free agent pickups, but that's probably for another post. Here, I want to go into a very preliminary grade of their first draft. I'll start with our first 4 picks.

Round 1 Jake Long OT Michigan

This is looking like an A pick right now. We haven't seen him play a down, but so far Jake Long has shown that he belongs on the starting line. Much remains to be see of Long, a fact that remains true for all our rookies, but I am very optimistic about his potential.

Round 2 Phillip Merling DE Clemson

This was an interesting pick when it was made. I have to be honest I had never heard of him, and when we selected him I was skeptical. He was supposed to have 1st round talent, so I approved. So far, I haven't seen much to be impressed about, but it's only been the summer. The loss of Jason Taylor made this pick a good one in hindsight.

Round 2 Chad Henne QB Michigan

To be honest I hated this pick. I knew we needed to take a QB at some point, but I wasn't a fan of any of them. Henne in particular. I followed him out of high school and watched him play 4 years at Michigan and took away the impression that Henne simply wasn't much of a winner in big game situations. He could never manage to beat Ohio State, so how is he going to help us beat the Patriots.

But Henne has gained a lot of respect from me this summer. He has looked very good, even when making the usual rookie mistakes. It's clear that he is a much better value pick than John Beck was in last year's 2nd round. Beck has regressed big time and will be lucky to make the team, so Henne's progression is crucial to the success of this franchise. I'm confident that he can eventually become a pretty good QB. Think of Jay Cutler's peak potential, not Tom Brady's.

Round 3 Kendall Langford DE Hampton

If you were clueless about this pick, join the club. I never like seeing my team pick Div 1AA players, but all you need to know about this pick is that they think enough of Langford to start him over both Randy Starks, a decent veteran, AND Phillip Merling, a player of the same position picked a full round before Langford.

Langford represents the classic boom or bust pick. The fact he is currently starting on the depth chart as a 3rd round pick in a Bill Parcells system that favors wily veterans speaks volumes either about his talent or this team's lack of it. We'll see, but so far so good.

Part 2 will be soon with our lower round picks, including surprising OL Donald Thomas.

So Much To Cover So Little Time

Obviously I've neglected this blog for a while now, with other priorities taking up all my time. But I still intend on keeping it around, just not on the daily, or maybe even weekly level that I had the first 6 months.

Since my last post over a month ago, a considerable amount of changes have occurred in South Florida sports. I wish all this would have happened a few months ago, when I was struggling to find something to talk about in the dead period after the basketball season was over but still had time to write.

I guess for now I'll try to piece it together a little at a time, mostly about the stuff I really care about.

For starters, the Dolphins seem to be fielding a decent enough squad this season. I know it's only preseason, but Chad Pennington and Chad Henne have looked pretty good as this team's quarterbacks. The offense is effective enough. Not explosive or dangerous yet, but when Ronnie gets healthier and once the receivers have time to develop I'm pretty confident they can score a good 20 points a game.

I've been impressed with the offensive line play. This has to be the best line we've put out in nearly a decade. Not one position on the line can be viewed as a weak point, with rookies Jake Long and Donald Thomas anchoring the missing spots we had in the offseason. Thomas has been a revelation of sorts, being a raw but powerful 6th round pick with little football experience, but was quick to land the starting job at RG.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see if the Dolphins don't take a look at Willie Anderson, who recently cut by the Bengals. We do have first dibs on waivers so it might be a possibility considering our massive cap space. The OT has some red flags, but when healthy he is a Top 5 or 6 offensive tackle in the league.

The defense supposedly has been "flying around", but frankly I see it being the weakest part of this team. Without Zach Thomas or Jason Taylor they simply don't have any playmakers left. Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford need time to develop and Joey Porter looks like his best days are behind him. Still, the team is looking solid enough to win at least 5-6 games and maybe do some damage at the end of the season once the rookies start getting a feel for the pro game.

My hopes are for Ted Ginn to keep the solid consistency he has shown this preseason and develop into a full fledged #1 receiver heading into the 2009 season. I want the OL to jell and stay healthy, giving us a solid group for the next 4 or 5 years. Other than that, it would be nice to just see the rookies develop. Henne looks like he might have some promise, though at this point I'm not sure I can say the same about John Beck, who has regressed since this point last season.

More than anything I'm looking forward to watching the team try to overachieve, but I know now that this squad comes with no expectations. The 2009 Draft will be more important to this franchise than the 2008 season, but we can still enjoy the Dolphins regardless. It's pretty apparent that the team is missing another big threat on offense and pretty much every position on defense, so Parcells has plenty of work to do. I'm sure he will unearth something from the recent cuts (like Anderson or maybe Jerome McDougle).

Anyway, I'll try to write some other thoughts of mine and have them scattered throughout the week so the posts don't all come at once.

So Long, JT

After a considerable pause from writing, I figured I would have to at the very least write my thoughts on the Jason Taylor trade.

Once we all heard Phillip Daniels got hurt, it was pretty inevitable that JT would get traded to the Redskins. Dan Snyder loves big name guys and the Skins have a good enough team to make the playoffs. JT could help them get that extra push.

The big story is that the Fins got a fair price in exchange for their best defensive player. JT didn't want anything to do with the franchise this season and was probably going to retire after the 2008 campaign. Getting a 2nd rounder in the next draft and a 6th in the following year's draft is a very nice package for a guy who was adamant about never wanting to play here again.

I suppose the Skins were pushed to make a move due to the injury. It gave the Dolphins a little bit of leverage where up until now, they had none.

So now Jason is gone and so is the entire Jimmy Johnson era. No players from those teams are around now. Gone is Zach Thomas. Gone is Jason Taylor. Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, all of them. The teams that won division titles and broke our hearts in the playoffs are officially a memory now.

It's unfortunate, but for the best. Jason needed a new home and we found him one, getting a fair deal in exchange. The 2nd round pick should be in the late teens or mid-20s, but I'll take a top 50 player in the draft for the next 10 years (should we make a wise selection) over a guy who has got a year or two left and no motivation to play for us.

I wish Jason well, even if the last few months here as a Dolphin were a bit rocky.

Packers and Jason Taylor

Honestly, I hope it happens. At this point, Taylor seems pretty adamant about either retiring after this season or refusing to play for the Dolphins at all. I love the guy, but the offseason drama has been a pain in the ass, and this team is bad enough without having to deal with all these issues. Losing Zach Thomas hurt, but we might as well rip off the memories of a glorious past (if you can call playoff failures glorious) like a band-aid.

The biggest problem isn't the price tag. I think the Dolphins could legitimately squeeze a 3rd rounder out of the Packers, and maybe even a 2nd. The problem is that Taylor is being a prima donna and sources say that the Green Bay market isn't "big enough" for him. It's possible this is just a smokescreen for the fact that Taylor simply doesn't want to play on a team led by Aaron Rodgers at QB. I would hope it is the latter, and JT doesn't want to insult the quarterback by outright saying it.

Regardless, we need to get rid of Taylor. It's clear that he will serve no use to us in the near future. Even if he plays this year, the chances of us winning a title are slim to none, and slim just left. We might as well get as much value as possible from the talent he has and prepare for the future. It makes sense for all parties involved. I really don't know why it hasn't happened yet.

It could be that the organization just doesn't want to admit to it's fans that it doesn't plan on winning many games this year. Trading your best player for a 2009 draft pick reeks of rebuilding mode. But they need to get over that, if that is the problem. Any fan who thinks a 1-15 team has any chance of making a difference this season is delusional. We all know by now the team sucks. They should just make the best decision possible for the future of the franchise and trust that it won't make a dent in ticket sales.

The Jason Taylor Saga

Something I've neglected to give my thoughts on recently has been the Jason Taylor soap opera. After finishing 2nd in the Dancing With the Stars competition, it became public that Taylor will not be attending any of the Dolphin's offseason training activities.

Clearly, the situation has become messy--- far messier than I would have liked to see. Luckily the team is awful so if this is a distraction, it isn't going to make much of a difference on the performance of the football team. I have always been one to defend Jason, especially when he made the decision to start looking at opportunities off the field.

However, I think it's time to start placing some of the blame on his shoulders. I understand that he is unhappy and that he would prefer to play for a contender. The problem is that by publicly distancing himself from the Dolphins, he has screwed them over. His value on the trade market has been greatly decreased because now there is either the threat that he simply retires or the possibility that the Dolphins will outright cut him (won't happen).

The Dolphins organization might not have handled this in the best way, but I wouldn't go so far as to say both sides are completely wrong. They have their priorities, and catering to Jason isn't one of them. It shouldn't be. He should have been traded at the draft for whatever fair deal we were offered. Hell, I would have taken a below-average market offer for Jason, considering the alternative we are faced with now: either a 4th round pick or him never playing for anyone again.

What the situation has shown us is that the NFL is still a business. As much as it hurt to see Zach Thomas leave to Dallas, the departure was amicable enough and handled well. As fans we have a similar attachment to Jason, but this time around the breakup has been ugly. Jason has been showing that he has placed his playing future and his life after football as his priority. Maybe that's being selfish, maybe it's being smart. I wish he would put a little more thought into how he is hurting the team he's played for all these years, but he has stood by the Dolphin's side for years as they churned out awful teams and wasted his career.

Hopefully we'll be able to unload him for a conditional pick at some point in the next month or so. Both parties have much to gain from the split.

Dolphins Sign 4

The McKinney deal has finally gone through, which is good news. He should be a nice fit as the 5th starter on the offensive line, barring a stellar training camp by one of the two rookies.

I'm pretty pleased to see that the Fins have already signed about half of their 2008 rookies. Granted, one was a given in Jake Long and the other 3 were low round guys that might not even make the team, but it's a start. I really hate seeing rookies hold out into training camp and miss out on the really important first few weeks of their NFL careers. I don't know of many players who have done that who didn't end up struggling in the NFL (see Jason Allen).

We won't have that problem this year because usually it is the first round picks that hold out and we already have ours locked down. I expect Merling to take a little longer than expected because he was a first round grade and was drafted in the 2nd, but it shouldn't be too much longer. Everyone else would be wise to sign their deals and get into camp as soon as possible.

Dolphins to Sign McKinney

No, not Seth, thankfully. Instead the Fins are on the verge of signing his brother, C/G Steve McKinney.

It looks like the Dolphins might not have all that much faith in their drafted guards. That or they are just being careful and making sure they have a veteran option available should the young guys struggle to make the transition to the NFL. I would certainly be more comfortable having Steve in at RG than an unproven rookie. Then again, I'd like to see what the rookies have to offer, because we had a lot of holes on this team and used two picks on guards, so I expect something to come from that.

Dolphins Cut Mormino

This week's cutting of Drew Mormino was a bit of a surprise to me. Going into the draft, I felt comfortable with our young line, having Vernon Carey, Samson Satele, Justin Smiley, and Jake Long as 4 of the 5 starters. Any 5th guy, even if serviceable, would be enough for the Dolphins to put out a top 1/3rd offensive line next season.

I fully expected us to draft a guard, and indeed the Dolphins picked up two. However, I fully expected Drew Mormino to be the guy starting at right guard. He had impressed last year in training camp before getting hurt, but I guess the front office felt he was another Joe Toledo. Toledo if you remember, had also impressed, but failed to stay healthy while a Dolphin. It's a shame, but if Jake Long can be effective, it doesn't really matter who is playing at right guard. Plus, they drafted those two guys for a reason right? We'll just have to trust their judgment.

I'm more interested in who will be the QB. Drafting Henne meant John Beck is on a short leash. If he can't beat out McCown for the job, don't look for Beck to be on this team past 2009. Henne is someone that Parcells is comfortable with and who he feels will fit the system. Beck has shown promise, but also has a long way to go before becoming an effective NFL QB. If he can't beat out a journeyman like Josh McCown, then the future doesn't look bright for either him or the Fins. I don't think we'll get 6 wins with any of the QBs at the helm, much less a guy like McCown.

Pats Taped Dolphins

Apparently, some time between 2000 and 2002, the New England Patriots videotaped games of the Miami Dolphins for future access in stealing our signals. They also taped 4 other teams in 5 other games. This revelation comes from Matt Walsh, who's saga continues now with more evidence that the Patriots are bigtime cheaters.

Granted, they are likely not the only team to have been doing this. Regardless it should be interesting to see what kinds of punishments they will face for this if the NFL finds them guilty of cheating. I personally don't know what they were doing taping the Dolphins, when Wannstedt's offense was run left, run right, run backwards, and his defense was straight up cover 2 man.

Hopefully they'll get more than a slap on the wrist. It would be fun to see some real chaos in the NFL, with a Super Bowl title stripped from those damn Patsies.

Dolphins Draft Recap

I wish I could tell you I knew anything about any of our Day 2 picks, but I don't. I had never heard of any of them, and I follow college football pretty closely. Those types of drafts are ones I get apprehensive about, because we are putting our full faith in the front office. Unfortunately it looks like we have no other choice at this point.

From what I've read, it seems like they got some decent value out of the 6th round Guard and the 7th round DT they picked. The 3rd and 4th round picks were viewed as reaches by some. I don't really care either way, as long as 60% of the guys we picked end up being contributers. People don't realize sometimes that the draft is such a crapshoot and that having that sort of success rate is enviable. Hopefully they made the right decisions, because I can't even begin to assign them a grade.

I didn't like the fact we didn't draft a WR or a CB, but I guess they felt that there wasn't much available that would make this team that much better. Building on the lines is as good a place to start as any. That makes the most sense and we just have to pray that it'll work out.

Dolphins Draft Henne

Looks like I called this one. I don't necessarily love the pick, but you had to bring in a QB at some point in the draft to compete with John Beck. There was a lot of talk of Henne leading up to the draft, so this selection is anything but surprising. 

I would have gone elsewhere, but this isn't a bad pick at all. Great first day for the Dolphins. Things are looking good Dolfans. Things are looking good. Then again, it takes a couple of years to see if this draft made an impact. For now, we do have reason to be optimistic.

Guys I Want

There are plenty of players available that I would like to take a look at.

For our 2nd round pick I would like to see if either Limas Sweed or DeSean Jackson slip far enough to draft. I especially am interested in Sweed. Getting Henne or Brohm would be interesting, but I don't really want one of those two QBs today.

Fred Davis and Jamaal Charles would be nice picks in the 2nd or 3rd round. I doubt we'll go after Davis because we just traded for Fasano, but who knows. They might end up going after a DT in Pat Sims or maybe go inside linebacker with Dan Connor or Tavares Gooden. Both of those guys are decent players but I'm not entirely sure they fit the system.

Corner would be a nice pick in the 2nd-3rd round area. I like Justin King, Reggie Smith, or Terrell Thomas. Granted they are all big school guys, but I've seen enough of the latter two to feel comfortable with them as picks. King is a risk because he hasn't lived up to his 5-star potential, but might be worth it if you fear a CB run.

I would actually like to see us go after Dennis Dixon in the 6th round if he is available. It's not much of a risk that late in the draft and he has a lot of upside. Glenn Sharpe wouldn't be a bad move either. He's been rated as having Day 1 talent but there are injury and consistency concerns.

I don't know about Malcolm Kelly or Mario Manningham. Both were excellent college guys, but have some red flags. If the latter is available in the 4th round, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins draft him for his upside though. I would also take a look at the big target from Louisville, Mario Urrutia in the 6th or 7th round.

Booker Traded to Eagles for 4th

I guess the new regime didn't think much of Lorenzo Booker. In order to replace the 4th round pick they traded earlier to the Cowboys, the Dolphins got rid of the 3rd down back for the Eagles' pick. 

It's an interesting move because the only two real backs left on the roster are injured and are in rehab. I guess they are comfortable with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for now. I was wondering if we might take a look at Jamaal Charles in the 3rd, but figured they would pass on that because they already had Booker. Now that becomes a real possibility as an insurance pick.

It is also strange because the Eagles already have a Lorenzo Booker in Brian Westbrook. Both pretty much have the same skill sets as pass catching backs. Westbrook is clearly better and is a much better runner, but still I would think the Eagles would want a complement instead of a supplement. Oh well. I won't miss the former Seminole.

Dolphins Draft Merling

 Well, there was no real suspense with our 1st pick. We've known its been Jake Long for a while now. It was still good to see him out there and officially get drafted though. However, as the picks went by, things got very interesting for the Dolphins and the #32 overall pick.

I advocated drafting Lawrence Jackson, but unfortunately he got picked up by Seattle just before our pick. I was then rooting for Quentin Groves, but I guess the front office felt there was more value in drafting Phillip Merling out of Clemson. I was still right about going after a DE, but frankly, I don't know a damn thing about Merling.

Scouts had him rated as a mid 1st round selection, so it is surprising that 1) I had no idea who he is and 2) we still had the opportunity to draft him. If they have faith in the guy, then I'm happy with the pick. We needed that position and got it. All that remains is to see if he is any good.

I was quite relieved to see that we didn't trade up for Joe Flacco and that we didn't reach for Chad Henne. Word was that we were in love with the Michigan QB, so as we were making the pick I was pretty nervous. I saw plenty of Henne in college and I don't think he is the answer. If they pick him up with the 57th pick, I guess it wouldn't be so bad, but I prefer us going after a CB instead. 

Dolphins Trade 4th Round Pick to Cowboys

OK, so much for my mock draft. I planned on the Dolphins taking a TE in the 3rd round, but now the Dolphins have traded their 4th round pick for Anthony Fasano and Akin Ayodele from the Cowboys. This gives us the necessary depth at TE and LB. I like the Fasano trade because we weren't likely to get anything much better in the draft. That does rule out my draft picks, and I might consider doing a new mock draft before 3pm tomorrow.

At least I was right about the Fins going after another TE. They may go elsewhere with that 3rd round pick now. Don't be surprised if they go after the best DB available with that pick.

Mock Draft

I don't have the time or expertise to do a 1st round mock draft, but I would like to throw out my opinion of what the Fins will be doing tomorrow and Sunday.

1st round: Jake Long has been drafted.

2nd round: I would like to think they would go with Quentin Groves or Lawrence Jackson. The entire mock draft goes to hell if the Dolphins trade Jason Taylor for an extra pick. Let's just assume here that they don't trade JT. I would still take a DE/OLB over a QB.

2nd round: Now I would consider a QB. If Henne is still available, then count your blessings and take him. If not, I think the pick is Sims the DT from Auburn

3rd round: Fred Davis, TE from USC. We need a dynamic playmaker here. Davis is one of the best prospects at his position. TE might be a luxury, but I still like it.

4th round: Mario Manningham slips a couple of rounds due to poor interviews and a god-awful 6 on the Wonderlic.

6th round: Chad Rinehart, OG Northern Iowa. We need another body on the line to compete. Rinehart has the size Parcells likes, but is from a small school so this could be a project

6th round: Jonathan Zenon, CB LSU. We could also go with Sharpe with this pick, or a smaller guy like Justin Tryon from ASU.

7th round: J (thats his name) Leman, Illinois ILB. Big linebacker who plays football well but isn't a great athlete.

7th round: Tommy Blake, DE, TCU. Supposedly there are some issues with his mental condition, but Blake has the measurables and the motor to take a chance on this late in the draft.

Don't Pick Flacco

Word is that the Dolphins are trying to trade JT for a mid-late first round pick to go after either Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves or Joe Flacco. Groves should be available at the #32 pick but I wouldn't mind selecting him earlier. I'm no fan of Harvey due to him being a Gator, but he has value in the mid-first round. However, I would be seriously pissed if we drafted Joe Flacco.

Some sportswriters have advocated selecting him in the 2nd. Specifically those at the Sun-Sentinel. They are entitled to their opinion, but I'm having a problem with Flacco being a potential selection. He has got a cannon arm, that's for sure. And he's got all the confidence in the world. However, he might have the wrong kind of confidence. We saw a guy with all the physical tools coming out of Washington State a few years ago. He got cocky and ended up failing miserably. I think his name was Ryan Leaf.

I don't want Flacco. I've heard bad things about his interviews at the combine and don't want any part of a prima donna QB. I also don't like the fact he comes from such a small school. Granted, there have been plenty of great QBs from these schools. Most recently you've got Tony Romo from a small Illinois school. But Flacco originally committed to Pittsburgh and ended up transferring after he couldn't get the starting job there. First off, it shows lack of dedication in being able to compete for the starting job. That's making the assumption of course, that he was ever given the chance. If he wasn't, then I apologize.

But more importantly, if you are such a great QB, what are you doing not being able to start at Pittsburgh? It's Wanny for God's sake. If he could have unearthed some more eligibility out of Jay Fiedler, he would have. How can you not be a good enough QB for Dave Wannstedt if you claim to be a 1st round pick? Something is just fishy with that whole deal.

Frankly, I'm not a big fan of any of the QBs coming out of this class. Henne is inconsistent, Brohm played in a funky offense, Ryan is terrible, Flacco is an ass, and Booty had all the talent around him and still didn't perform at a super high level. Then again, I always hate every QB in every class. It's been years since I've said any rookie QB would turn out to be any good so what do I know.

Fins Shopping JT

I guess this was to be expected. At least the Dolphins aren't going to give him up easily. If Chris Chambers can demand a 2nd round pick on the market, then surely Jason Taylor merits a 1st or at least a 2nd and a 4th.

Trading JT would mean the end of the old Dolphins era--- the one that won so many games in the late 90s and early 2000s, but never enjoyed any playoff success. That's fine. He deserves to move on to greener pastures at this point. A 1st round pick in return would be fair and would put the organization in a position to continue to improve this roster.

Jake Long is the first step. A mid-1st round pick could turn into a guy like Brian Brohm (if they are interested) or the Talib kid from Kansas. There are dozens of players that would fill needs for the Dolphins in the late first round. We'll likely scoop one up with the 32nd pick, but getting an additional one would let us play around with our options. Groves in the 2nd, maybe Lawrence Jackson (the guy I really like). Maybe go after Kenny Phillips in the late first if you were to acquire a pick. Who knows? The possibilities are endless, but before we start speculating, we have to find a trading partner.

Jake Long is the Man

About time. We can finally stop dreaming up fantasy scenarios of trading down or passing on the #1 pick. Forget the "Freudian Slip" that cast the doubt on the possibility of selecting Jake Long. And definitely forget the rumors that Long had no interest in playing for the Dolphins. ESPN and the Sun-Sentinel are reporting that Jake Long has agreed to a contract with the Dolphins and will be the #1 overall selection come Saturday at 3pm.

The press conference should be in about half an hour. I suppose they might release the terms then. For now it's unknown how much the contract is for. I don't really care. It's going to be a huge number that will restrict us financially if Long doesn't produce at a high level. I'm just happy we have our LT and can move on to other pressing needs in the draft.

This makes the Dolphins offensive line one of the finest young lines in the league. For once we'll actually have a good offensive line. I hope. Look for a pass rushing OLB/DE and a QB to be selected in the 2nd rounds. The rest is a crapshoot no matter what draft experts tell you, but I'll still come up with a mock draft later this week.