Playoff Predictions Update

A little over a month ago I posted my predictions for the entire NBA postseason. Usually, I'm way off on these things, case in point my failed NCAA brackets. However, this year I managed to screw myself over in a new way. I didn't bet on my picks.

Sure, I didn't get any of the series lengths correct. And yes, I didn't do much in picking upsets. Regardless, I'm pretty proud of the fact I got every series correct leading up to the much ballyhooed Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals that I would say is going to be over in 5. Expect Kobe and the Lakers to be celebrating on their home court in a couple of weeks. They're that good.

I wonder what kind of payoff I would have gotten from dropping a bet on my entire postseason predictions. It kind of sucks that for once in my life I was right about a sports prediction, but I got nothing from it. Although I suppose these playoffs were relatively predictable aside from the Boston-Detroit ECF, the Spurs-Suns first round series and the Spurs-Hornets 2nd round series. The rest were pretty much easy picks.

Canes Defeat Bethune Cookman

Miami took care of business today in Game 1 of their CWS Regional. Much had been made of the fact the Canes got the #1 overall seed but still somehow received the toughest draw of any of the teams hosting a regional. I still don't understand it, but what can be done? Maybe the hatred of the football team spilled over onto our baseball team, who knows.

Regardless, Miami has to win to prove they are among the elite. It didn't really matter who they were matched up against. Today's game vs Bethune Cookman was key. BC held a 9th inning lead against us earlier this year, and was the regional's 4th seed, so you can imagine just how difficult a draw this was for the hometown Canes.

The 7-4 victory was hard-earned, but still welcome when every win counts and 2 losses sends you packing. Enrique Garcia gave us a good outing, which is good news because we can now send in our aces Chris Hernandez and Eric Erickson out for games 2 and 3 of the regional and give us a good chance of advancing to the Super Regional.

Dorsey, Riley, and the #2 pick

You might have heard about the Joey Dorsey comments regarding his belief that Derrick Rose is the #2 pick in the draft. He has "inside sources", but really, who is to say he isn't full of it. Then again, why would he lie about his teammate falling below the #1 spot. I don't know what to make of the situation. I can only hope the Bulls go and take Beasley (hardly a bad move on their part) so we can rest easy and take Derrick Rose.

Ira's recent blog brings up an interesting point as well. We aren't working out Brook Lopez or Jerryd Bayless, so maybe Riley really has decided on picking Beasley if Rose is taken. It could also mean Mayo is a definite option at #2 or in a trade-down scenario. Because otherwise it would seem odd for Miami not to work out several Top 5 caliber picks to gauge its options.

One scenario would have us trading down to get Mayo, while unloading contracts and getting back a C/PG starter. If we could get Al Jefferson to move down to 3, I might consider bypassing Beasley. Otherwise, no thanks. Even then I'm not entirely sure that would be a wise move, and I seriously doubt the Timberwolves would make such a deal, but hey, I'm allowed to speculate.

Marlins Lose Series to Mets, Cling to Lead

The Mets series was the start of a crucial NL East road trip that would determine whether or not the Marlins belonged on top of the standings.

It started off well enough, but Florida blew two leads in the rubber match and ultimately lost in extra innings to drop to 30-22. It's not really a big deal, despite having our division lead shrink to just half a game. We've shown we can be competitive in the division; all that Florida needs to do is stay consistent and they'll be fine.

It is still way too much to ask of this young ballclub to make the playoffs. Philly has a ridiculous lineup, the Braves have some bats and Tim Hudson, and the Mets were preseason picks by many to make the World Series, having added Johan Santana. Still, the Marlins have managed to piece together a spectacular 1/3rd of a season and by now we can start having hope that they'll keep up the pace.

The Marlins don't play tonight but start a 3 game series at Philly to determine who will be leading the division at the start of the new week. Hopefully our ragtag bunch of starters can keep the Utley-Howard-Burrell combination off the scoreboards. That should be a tough assignment considering the recent offensive surge being made by the Phillies.

2nd Ranked Canes Take Home ACC Crown

The Canes baseball team rebounded from a disappointing season ending loss to the top ranked Tar Heels by beating all comers to win their first ACC title with an 8-4 win over UVA today.

Miami had been given the #1 seed and easily routed Clemson 8-1, before needing a late 9th inning rally to top Georgia Tech 15-12.

The ensuing game was a close 5-2 victory over NC State that featured a refreshing 7 scoreless innings from starter Enrique Garcia and a 3 run shot from 2B Jemile Weeks. The win propelled Miami to what was today's title game against Virginia that was never really in doubt.

Clinching the title should give Miami all the confidence it needs heading into the College World Series, which starts on Friday. They've already been selected to host a regional for the 22nd time in school history, and we will find out who our 3 opponents will be tomorrow afternoon.

It is safe to say that for this team, it is title or bust. They have as much pro-level talent on this team as any other in the country, if not the most. The starting staff has been solid, with freshman Chris Hernandez being spectacular all season. The bullpen has had up and downs but is a strong point of this team and there is no weakness in the lineup. I fully expect Miami to contend for the National Title, if not outright win it.

Gregg, Uggla Highlight DH Sweep of Giants

Maybe the Marlins should be in the NL West? After all, the first place Fish sweep the vaunted Diamondbacks before winning 2 of 3 at home vs the lowly Giants.

Things didn't look good in either game, but the Marlins rallied in both to come out on top 8-6 and 5-4. The opening game of the doubleheader featured 4 home runs by the Florida lineup and a clutch save by closer Kevin Gregg, who has been solid all season.

Gregg appeared later in the doubleheader, keeping a 4-4 tied heading into the bottom of the 9th before eventually picking up the win. His contributions have been key to the Marlins' success this season. It's amazing how Florida always seems to milk saves out of their closers, even when they are nobodies. From Armando Benitez, Urbina, Borowski, Todd Jones, all of these guys are hardly Mariano Rivera's. They still seem to produce career years in the closer role for the Marlins though.

However, the hero of the day was Dan Uggla, who hit his Marlins record 12th home run of the month in the first game of the doubleheader. He then continued his valuable production with the 2 out bases loaded single in the bottom of the 9th that clinched the series. I really hope that Dan will get some recognition if he keeps it up. The announcers mentioned Chase Utley as a shoo-in for the All-Star spot at 2B, but I would think Uggla will make people think twice.

The Marlins are now sitting pretty at 29-20, half a game back of several teams for the best record in baseball. Little by little, the season is ticking away and the Marlins remain on top of the leaderboard. It really is an amazing story, now with almost 1/3rd of the year in the books.

The Jason Taylor Saga

Something I've neglected to give my thoughts on recently has been the Jason Taylor soap opera. After finishing 2nd in the Dancing With the Stars competition, it became public that Taylor will not be attending any of the Dolphin's offseason training activities.

Clearly, the situation has become messy--- far messier than I would have liked to see. Luckily the team is awful so if this is a distraction, it isn't going to make much of a difference on the performance of the football team. I have always been one to defend Jason, especially when he made the decision to start looking at opportunities off the field.

However, I think it's time to start placing some of the blame on his shoulders. I understand that he is unhappy and that he would prefer to play for a contender. The problem is that by publicly distancing himself from the Dolphins, he has screwed them over. His value on the trade market has been greatly decreased because now there is either the threat that he simply retires or the possibility that the Dolphins will outright cut him (won't happen).

The Dolphins organization might not have handled this in the best way, but I wouldn't go so far as to say both sides are completely wrong. They have their priorities, and catering to Jason isn't one of them. It shouldn't be. He should have been traded at the draft for whatever fair deal we were offered. Hell, I would have taken a below-average market offer for Jason, considering the alternative we are faced with now: either a 4th round pick or him never playing for anyone again.

What the situation has shown us is that the NFL is still a business. As much as it hurt to see Zach Thomas leave to Dallas, the departure was amicable enough and handled well. As fans we have a similar attachment to Jason, but this time around the breakup has been ugly. Jason has been showing that he has placed his playing future and his life after football as his priority. Maybe that's being selfish, maybe it's being smart. I wish he would put a little more thought into how he is hurting the team he's played for all these years, but he has stood by the Dolphin's side for years as they churned out awful teams and wasted his career.

Hopefully we'll be able to unload him for a conditional pick at some point in the next month or so. Both parties have much to gain from the split.

Heat Have Offers for Beasley

The rumors continue to swirl about the Bulls being ready to take Derrick Rose with the #1 pick in the draft. Bad news for Heat fans who wanted that Wade-Rose backcourt. But Beasley is hardly a consolation prize, as he is technically the better talent.

However, the Herald reports there is a chance the Heat trade out of this pick. They've gotten offers from several teams ready and willing to trade up to get Beasley and I think they are pretty serious about making a deal. The thought of it terrifies me because I want one of the two elite guys in the draft. I don't want retreads or veterans that will clog up cap space.

What Riley is looking for is to move down a bit in the Top 10, and receive a top point guard or center starter, as well as dumping Mark Blount's salary to boot. That doesn't sound like such a bad deal. You can still draft a guy like DJ Augustin and get back a starter in return, while opening up some cap space for 2009. However, I simply can't shake the fact that Beasley is there for the taking. A deal might help us out in the short run, but I hate passing on once-in-a-decade talent.

Marlins Hand Webb First Loss

Now there's something you don't see every day. It's amazing how the Marlins continue to prove everyone wrong. After a lackluster week or two, the Marlins have rebounded to win the series against baseball's best team. Tonight they squeezed out a win against the Diamondback's ace, the previously undefeated Brandon Webb.

The victory today, coupled with a win over Micah Owings (despite 10k's) yesterday assures the Marlins of the series win and I'm sure some respect in league circles. They hadn't beaten a team with a winning record in May and people were starting to question their hot start (including myself) on a cupcake schedule. Somehow they continue to keep winning. I know it's a line I keep repeating, but I still don't know how they're doing it, especially with Hanley Ramirez slumping.

The win puts the Marlins within 1.5 games of the 'Backs and Cubs for the best record in baseball. Imagine what a sweep of the NL favorite Diamondbacks would do for this young team's confidence. I know I would be impressed, especially because they would have faced the heart of the Arizona rotation. The Marlins are up against ace Danny Haren tomorrow, so it won't be easy to finish off the sweep.

Now That We Have The 2nd Pick

What happens next?

That's probably a good question. No doubt I wasn't the only one relieved as hell to see the Timberwolves' logo on the 3rd envelope. That meant we had assured ourselves of either Beasley or Rose. The problem is that I'm not entirely sure Beasley is our guy and the Bulls present a threat to take Rose.

I personally like the idea of picking 2nd. You take whichever guy is left over and call it a day. No 2nd guessing down the road if the player you missed out on ends up being a superstar or wins a title. I would be ecstatic to have either player. My preference is Rose to team up with Wade in the backcourt, but that's up to Chicago now.

I would hope the Bulls know better than to pick the hometown guy in Rose. They have 2 or 3 solid point guards, and a whole lot of money tied up into that position. They also have no frontcourt scoring ability, so Beasley presents a very enticing option. I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Michael. However, there are rumblings that they like Rose and might end up taking him.

I would be fine with that, if we were to take Beasley that is. I've read rumors that Miami is less than enamored with Beasley and would lean towards trading the pick if it isn't Rose. That scares the hell out of me, to be honest. Only once a decade or so do you get a gift like this. Unless we get a proven, relatively young All-Star and a good backup or two in the trade, then we seriously need to just take Beasley. Figure out what to do with Haslem or Marion later.

I will be very pissed if we trade the pick instead of taking Beasley. I'm tired of Riley's anti-youth personnel decision-making. And speaking of Marion, apparently he is looking to opt out, according to ESPN. So that puts us in a position where drafting Beasley would be a no-brainer. Regardless, I'm a little antsy about the whole thing because it's no longer assured we will get Derrick Rose. I don't want a situation where we pass on a can't-miss prospect in favor of some retreads and cap space. Maybe picking 2nd isn't so great after all. Had we just gotten that first pick it would have been Rose all the way.

Tom Brady Clobbered

I figure since things haven't been too great for us South Florida sports fans I figured I would bring up some good memories of a recent game that made us all smile. Music sucks, but whatever.

Uggla's Future with the Marlins

I read this piece yesterday and I thought it brought up an important issue.

Dan Uggla has certainly been a nice surprise for the Marlins these past couple of seasons. A Rule V selection, nobody saw his emergence as a reliable power hitter coming. The problem is that Uggla doesn't quite fit in with the whole "defense wins championships" mantra. He also strikes out quite a bit, but then again so does the entire Marlins roster.

Does he deserve a long-term extension? I'm not sure yet. It's difficult to find a 2B with his kind of offensive production, but he is still a liability on defense. The article suggested moving him to 3rd, which isn't a bad idea considering Jorge Cantu is a stopgap option at best. The Marlins did just draft Matt Dominguez last year, but he is not an option anytime soon.

If we do offer an extension, I'm not sure he merits one in the 30M dollar range. A 4 year, 20M dollar deal seems fair enough considering his limitations on defense. Considering the fact we just broke the bank for Hanley and expect to have new revenues pouring in once the stadium is built, the Marlins have few excuses to give Uggla. Then again, they could say that the Ramirez's deal took up any excess cap space they felt like giving away. We'll see.

Heck, if anything, maybe the Marlins will take a look at Jemile Weeks from UM at 2nd base in the upcoming MLB Draft. I wouldn't be opposed to that at all.

Dolphins Sign 4

The McKinney deal has finally gone through, which is good news. He should be a nice fit as the 5th starter on the offensive line, barring a stellar training camp by one of the two rookies.

I'm pretty pleased to see that the Fins have already signed about half of their 2008 rookies. Granted, one was a given in Jake Long and the other 3 were low round guys that might not even make the team, but it's a start. I really hate seeing rookies hold out into training camp and miss out on the really important first few weeks of their NFL careers. I don't know of many players who have done that who didn't end up struggling in the NFL (see Jason Allen).

We won't have that problem this year because usually it is the first round picks that hold out and we already have ours locked down. I expect Merling to take a little longer than expected because he was a first round grade and was drafted in the 2nd, but it shouldn't be too much longer. Everyone else would be wise to sign their deals and get into camp as soon as possible.

Dolphins to Sign McKinney

No, not Seth, thankfully. Instead the Fins are on the verge of signing his brother, C/G Steve McKinney.

It looks like the Dolphins might not have all that much faith in their drafted guards. That or they are just being careful and making sure they have a veteran option available should the young guys struggle to make the transition to the NFL. I would certainly be more comfortable having Steve in at RG than an unproven rookie. Then again, I'd like to see what the rookies have to offer, because we had a lot of holes on this team and used two picks on guards, so I expect something to come from that.

Dolphins Cut Mormino

This week's cutting of Drew Mormino was a bit of a surprise to me. Going into the draft, I felt comfortable with our young line, having Vernon Carey, Samson Satele, Justin Smiley, and Jake Long as 4 of the 5 starters. Any 5th guy, even if serviceable, would be enough for the Dolphins to put out a top 1/3rd offensive line next season.

I fully expected us to draft a guard, and indeed the Dolphins picked up two. However, I fully expected Drew Mormino to be the guy starting at right guard. He had impressed last year in training camp before getting hurt, but I guess the front office felt he was another Joe Toledo. Toledo if you remember, had also impressed, but failed to stay healthy while a Dolphin. It's a shame, but if Jake Long can be effective, it doesn't really matter who is playing at right guard. Plus, they drafted those two guys for a reason right? We'll just have to trust their judgment.

I'm more interested in who will be the QB. Drafting Henne meant John Beck is on a short leash. If he can't beat out McCown for the job, don't look for Beck to be on this team past 2009. Henne is someone that Parcells is comfortable with and who he feels will fit the system. Beck has shown promise, but also has a long way to go before becoming an effective NFL QB. If he can't beat out a journeyman like Josh McCown, then the future doesn't look bright for either him or the Fins. I don't think we'll get 6 wins with any of the QBs at the helm, much less a guy like McCown.