Monday, March 31, 2008

Beasley or Rose?

The Heat have 9 games left and would have to win at least 4 of them to blow our chances at the most ping-pong balls in the NBA Draft Lottery. Basically, we've got the worst record locked up. What a huge turnaround from holding the Larry O'Brien trophy just 2 years ago. Anyway, the odds as I understand them are as follows:

We have a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick. If I have the process of the lottery right, we have something like a 60% chance of getting a Top 3 pick. Somehow it doesn't seem fair that the worst team in recent memory has a 40% chance of being stuck with the 4th pick in a draft that has 2 elite prospects. I forgot most of my college statistics so I don't know what our odds are of getting a Top 2 pick. I'm not sure if after the top pick is drawn if they remove that team's lottery balls or if they just disregard them if the ball comes up again when drawing for the 2nd pick.

In any case, getting a Top 2 selection means either Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose will be in a Miami Heat uniform next season. I'm almost hoping we get the #2 pick so we don't have to make that decision and live with a mistake if that is the case.

In terms of needs, Rose obviously fits a bigger need than Beasley. Both Marion and Haslem can be effective at power forward, so Beasley would just be a luxury pick. We have no point guard on this team and Dwyane Wade seriously needs one so he doesn't have to deal with ballhandling duties. We've seen what happens when Wade is the primary ballhandler. Wade has 15% more turnovers than the next player (Steve Nash), but also has half the turnover to assist ratio. He has become reckless with the ball and tries to do too much. Derrick Rose would take a huge load off his back because he can run an offense, score, rebound and defend.

Michael Beasley is just a freak of nature on the offensive end. He has the potential to average 25/12 for a decade in the NBA. Drafting him would add yet another offensive weapon to go with Wade and Marion. Trading Haslem for a point guard becomes a possibility, and even going with a stopgap wouldn't prevent that team from making the playoffs. There are questions about his motivation and his character, but I haven't seen any problems with that at Kansas State. He's shown some leadership in carrying his team to upsets over Kansas and USC.

Personally, I wouldn't know what to do with the #1 overall pick. Beasley could be Derrick Coleman or a one-of-a-kind player for your team. Rose could be Chris Paul or Jay Williams. You never know. In either case, you're getting an elite prospect that makes your team much better. If we get a Top 2 pick I would bet the house on the Heat returning to the playoffs next year.

I think that ultimately I would go with Rose. He is everything you need in a point guard, including size. Beasley is a monster on the boards, but he is between a 3 and a 4 in terms of size so it becomes questionable as to which position he can/will play in the NBA. Too much uncertainty there. I'll post a poll to see what you guys think, but feel free to validate your opinions below as well.


The Bull Gator said...
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The Bull Gator said...

You've gotta go with Rose. After watching him in the tourney, he is something special. He is cool under pressure and would bring immediate help to the Heat. Not that Beasley wouldn't, but they need someone to run the offense and get the ball to Wade. He can't do it all by himself.