Big Game Tomorrow

Well I'm sitting here mourning the loss of all 6 of my brackets. As usual, I get through Day 1 of Round 1 unscathed before a bevy of upsets kill my favorites and my upset picks end up flopping. Oh well.

Tomorrow is what really counts (though I did go ahead and pick Miami to win it all in one bracket) for local basketball fans. Miami plays powerhouse Texas for the right to head to the Sweet 16. Plenty of storylines here. Can the upstart Canes topple an established power on a neutral court in the postseason? Can Frank Haith outcoach his former boss Rick Barnes? And how many potential recruits will be watching?

On paper, the Canes should get blown out. Dwayne Collins has disappeared and Miami hasn't gotten any consistent offense aside from Jack McClinton. Don't expect him to drop 40 against the Longhorns. Barnes will probably have him double and triple-teamed the entire game with athletes far superior to those St. Mary's had to throw at him. Somebody else will have to step up. We need big buckets from Lance Hurdle and James Dews.

For the Canes to win, Miami needs to shoot at least 48% from the field, holding Texas to under 40%. They need to win the FT battle, keep the turnovers to a dozen or less, and stay within a couple of rebounds of Texas. That's a tough task to ask of an inconsistent team against one of the better teams in the nation.

However, I'm going to go crazy here and officially predict an upset. Never underestimate the negative impact of a below average coach. Frank Haith's team might make it's share of mental mistakes, but more often than not, he has them prepared and focused for their opponent. He does a decent job of making adjustments to give his guys a chance to win. Barnes has been deep into the Tourney, but has for the most part shared the fate of his football counterpart Mack Brown. Tons of talent but nothing to show for it (we're not counting 2005 Texas because that was all Vince Young).

Miami keeps it to within a couple of scores in the first half, then comes out to a 6/8-0 run to start the second half and takes the lead. The Canes nurse a small lead until the final minutes when the Longhorns catch up and retake the lead. Then Jack McClinton comes and saves the day with a barrage of late 3s to seal the deal. Canes shock Texas and win 78-74.