With a loss on Sunday the Dolphins ensure the #1 overall pick in April's NFL Draft. The potential prospects are plenty and regardless of what they do, the Dolphins will be getting an impact player at a position of need, a luxury that many teams don't get in their drafts. However, I thought I might tinker with the draft value chart to see what the Dolphins could get for their pick.
Pretty much every scenario involves Darren McFadden, a talent along the lines of Minnesota back Adrian Peterson. Many teams will covet him and as of right now, 3 of the top 5 teams in the draft would be well off drafting him. That means there should be a healthy demand for jumping to the #1 overall pick and ensuring a selection of the the Arkansas back.
Scenario 1: The Dallas Cowboys make a play for Jerry Jones' mancrush. Right now they would have the 23rd pick in the draft, and assuming they lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl, they would also have the 31st. This is the Dolphins best chance to get a package of picks in the first round, but also represents a severe shortage of value.
The #1 overall pick is valued at 3000 points according to the draft value chart, while the combination of Dallas' first round picks is less than half that at 1360. Throw in Dallas' 2nd round pick and it's still about 1350 value points under what the Dolphins need for the first pick. Therefore we are really looking at a scenario where Dallas forks over both 1st round picks, their 2nd round pick, and probably next year's 1st and 3rd/4th in order to really be fair for Miami. It's unlikely Dallas would trade so many picks for just one player so that probably takes them out of the running.
Scenario 2 has us trading down to 3 to the Jets, who either fear us dealing McFadden elsewhere or fear a Patriots decision to make a play for him. Trading their first 3 picks equals a fair deal according to the chart, but it's also unlikely that a poor team like the Jets will risk failing to improve several holes in their roster in order to take one running back.
The same situation happens for nearly every scenario involving McFadden. Is it worth trading a bundle of picks for just one player? Especially when you can pick up a competent RB off the street? The Cowboys are really the only ones with a spare 1st but thanks to Cleveland's success, it's a late 1st at best. At this juncture, it seems like Parcells will draft either Glenn Dorsey or Chris Long to shore up the defensive line with a big body because trading down seems unlikely barring someone really decides to give up a boatload for McFadden or one of the other elite prospects. Personally I hope somebody takes the bait, preferably the Jets who offer early picks in the first day to give us potentially 6 of the first 65 picks.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Dolphins Draft Options Part 2
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2 comments:
that chart is obselete.since the dramatic rise in salarys for top 10 picks that old chart is gone.value is now based on the value a team places on the player it can take #1 vs the value of the player or picks a team is willing to offer.the old chart doent factor in the finacial burden being lifted by team trading out of #1
I agree. The 3000 points given to the #1 overall pick needs to be lowered drastically because of the financial windfall of making a mistake.
However, I don't know of any teams that would trade away the #1 overall pick for something that didn't at least resemble the chart value. NFL people can be very stubborn. Personally I would consider trading down to 5 and landing their 2nd round pick as well as being a fair deal, but no GM would ever trade the #1 pick for something like that.
Instead you get crazy deals like the Eli Manning/Phillip Rivers trade.
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