Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Recruiting: A Look Back to 2003

Recently, I wrote a piece regarding our 2004 recruiting class and the disappointment stemming from that class reflecting on the field in 2007. I thought it might be a good exercise to do similar pieces on the 2003 and 2005 classes to see where this team has come from, and what we should expect next season.

Obviously, many of the 2008 commits will have immediate impacts on the 2008 team, and while that is exciting, it's not necessarily a good thing for the short term. It will pay dividends in '09 and '10, but for now, the guys who will influence our success the most will theoretically be from the 2005 class.

On to 2003 and why last year's team finished 7-6 and with a better record than this season's 5-7 club, despite being coached by a largely inept Larry Coker...

The 2003 class featured a couple mega-busts and several highly rated players that panned out. Despite what our record suggested, our team in 2006 had some serious talent.

We only signed 21 kids that year, and from that number only Leo Waiters (academics), Kevin Everett (JUCO transfer who went to draft), Alton Wright (JUCO), Dave Howell (transfer to Portland State) weren't on the team in 2006. The one guy that didn't make the team that REALLY hurt us was Ali Highsmith, who just won a national title with LSU. However, he couldn't qualify academically, so that's not Coker's fault.

Of the kids who did stick around for the long run, only one, Cyrim Wimbs, can be called a guy who rarely got any playing time. Cyrim was a 3-star guy who never really made a huge impact on this team, but wasn't necessarily a waste of a scholarship either.

Based on this, it could be argued that the team had a nice haul from it's relatively small class. Not necessarily. Many of our guys had playing time, but were not the playmakers we expected when we signed them.

On the defensive line, we had 3 guys who were still around last season from this 2003 class. 4 star Vegas Franklin, a solid kid who fits decently in a rotation but is not a world beater; 2-star Teraz McCray, another decent player but not much more than an above average DT at best; and 4-star Eric Moncur who will probably be our best returning DL for 2008.

All are nice players but unless Moncur does well next year, none are 1st-day picks in the NFL Draft. Of note is the fact that the slain Bryan Pata was technically part of this class, though he was recruited the year before.

In addition to those guys, we signed 3 linebackers. One, Jon Beason had an average start to his career but ended it with a bang and was selected in the 1st round in last year's draft. He played exceedingly well and were it not for Patrick Willis, would have easily won the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Tavares Gooden, like Beason, was a 4 star prospect. He also had a disappointing career until just this past season where he was an excellent defender against the run. He could end up as a day 1 pick. Finally, there is 3 star Glenn Cook, who is smart but not an impact player at his position.

Willie Cooper was the lone DB we recruited that season, a 4 star player who has proven to be a decent backup, but not much more at the safety position. Devin Hester (5 stars) and Terrell Walden (4 stars) are also 2002 guys who signed later, so I won't count them. Also a 4 star commit was P Brian Monroe, who had a rough career for the most part here in Miami.

On offense, the class enjoyed commitments from several heralded recruits. Greg Olsen, a 5 star TE, transferred from Notre Dame and had a good career here, but disappointed in '06 before being selected in the 1st round by the Bears. RB Tyrone Moss was a highly touted back and looked like he was heading for stardom early on, but eventually ate his way out of a job and was not drafted last April.

The offensive line received commitments from 3 players who were starting on the line this past season. Derrick Morse, the team's best upperclassman OL, was a 3 star. Andrew Bain was a huge 4 star guard commit who had an good career here as well. John Rochford was another 4 star player who didn't really contribute until his final season as our starting center.

So what does all this really mean? Why was this team such a failure when the team had some talent and had contributions from almost all of their signees? It was unlikely that the team could have produced a really special season, but with some help from the 2004-2006 classes, this team should have contended for an ACC title instead of hovering at 500.

The answer is in the one guy I haven't mentioned until now: Kyle Wright. Kyle was a monster commitment for the Canes. 5 stars. #1 overall player in the nation. The next Ken Dorsey that would continue the dynasty. People were literally begging for him to come in as a true frosh back in 2003 when Brock was struggling. Once Kyle finally got on the field as a full time starter in 2005 though, things began to unravel.

It will always be my belief that Kyle *could* have been something good. Not great, because his inability to read defenses at times was absolutely baffling. But I remember his first game ever, at Doak Campbell Stadium, down 3 late in the 4th. He had taken an absolute beating. 9 sacks total. Yet he stood in there and kept launching passes to Greg Olsen under intense pressure from the defense. It looked like we had a QB for the future.

However, Coker, his coaches, and Kyle's own teammates failed to improve the team from that performance. Kyle constantly had to play under pressure in his first year and got shellshocked. Then, after we lost a few decent receivers to the NFL, he was stuck with Lance Leggett as his primary target. The poor guy rarely had anyone to throw to when he wasn't being nailed by a blitzing linebacker. I think those early games ruined Kyle for his entire football career.

Maybe that's a reflection of his character, or maybe it shows that Coker did a poor job of surrounding his QB with talent. Who knows. Kyle was overrated, and passes like the UNC INT in the end zone this last season prove he was never going to be a Heisman candidate. But he should have been better than this. And because he wasn't, that's why this team has struggled to 9-3, 7-6, and 5-7 records the last 3 years. You can sign all the 4 star guys you want, but if the quarterback play is not up to Miami standards, you simply can't expect to win too many games.

The result is that the 2003 class was a pretty decent one. There were a couple of stars, and several players who made solid contributions. However, Coker failed to develop his talent, and Kyle failed to capitalize on his own potential.

It should be noted that is class was ranked 6th by Scout and 5th by Rivals. For comparison, the other top 5 teams in those classes were LSU, OU, USC, and UF. OU finished 11th, USC 4th, LSU 3rd, and UF won the national title in 2006. We went to Idaho.

In addition, Michigan was a top class and did finish in the top 10. Of course, some top 10 classes did not fare as well, with Notre Dame finishing the 2006 season in the top 20, Tennessee in the top 25, Georgia being a borderline top 25 team, and NC State doing nothing.

And some teams that did well did not have heralded classes, like West Virginia and everyone's Cinderella, Boise State. However, there is a noticeable correlation, though not a perfect one, that highly ranked classes often translates to success in the future. Except with us.

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